According to a 1998 U.S. Geological Survey study the mean number of economically recoverable oil in the ANWR 1002 area is 5.2 billion barrels (found in the caption of Fig 6 on page 6). Mean technically recoverable oil within the ANWR 1002 area is 7.7 billion barrels (see "Summary" pg 6).

The difference between technically recoverable and economically recoverable is what is physically able to be brought up from under the ground and what can actually be brought up out of the ground within a reasonable level of economic viability.

The Bush administration likes to quote a figure of 10.4 billion barrels, and that number comes from the same "summary" section of the report. However statistically speaking there's only a 5% chance of that much technically recoverable oil being there. That's in the summary section too.

To put this in perspective, in 2002 the United States consumed 19.76 million barrels of oil per day. (See this chart) That works out to about 7.2 billion barrels for the year.

Yet another analysis shows that the absolute peak production that ANWR could potentially ever hit is 1.9 million barrels per day, but that won't happen until 20 to 30 years from now and there's only a 5% chance of it happening at all. (See section 3. Summary) The more likely case is 600,000 barrels per day, in the same time interval.

Just for argument's sake let's split the difference and call peak production 980,000 barrels per day, or 357.7 million per year. That's about 5% of total US oil consumption in the year 2002. In 2020 that consumption is going to be significantly higher, and that production rate might not even be reached until 2030.

All in all we're not talking a hugely significant decrease in the American dependence on foreign oil. It would be far better to reduce total consumption rather than bump domestic production by a few percentage points.

 

We all know in the long run less consumption is better, because no matter what - we'll run out of oil.

The bottom line though, the more American oil we use, the better. I don't care if it's not "substantial", if that's 357.7million barrels at $30/barrel that isn't going to the hands of some Saudi National or Iranian National, that's $10,710,000,000 that will go to the US economy and not theirs.

I realize, long term we need to shy away from oil consumption - but for now we should also be looking at getting some of the money into our own pockets and out of theirs.

 

Keep in mind that my final number is an *extremely* optimistic one. If you go with the 95%-chance estimate of 600,000 barrels per day, that's 219 million per year, or 3% of total year 2002 consumption. And that won't happen until the year 2020 at the earliest. Not exactly what I would call short term.

 

Well no, not exactly short term - but not long term either. If it were up to me I'd say we start preparing and searching for more of our own oil sources, regardless how "miniscule" you think it may be. (Look, even 219million barrels per year is $6,700,000,000) while we continue to lower our consumption and search for other means of viable energy.

Sitting back and betting on one side or the other, or just flat out refusing to do anything about it because it's not going to give enough to our economy is pointless. I personally would rather see $6b go back into my economy rather than Saudi Arabia's or Iran's.

 

The basic difference here is whether or not to drill in the ANWR 1002 area. I would much rather see consumption reduced, and ANWR 1002 left alone. To me, the environmental impact is not worth the very small dent it will put in our consumption of foreign oil (not all of which, btw, is from Saudi Arabia or Iran).

Fuel economy regulations can be made stringent enough and cars can be made to meet those requirements while still maintaining enough profitability. Hell, a freakin 2005 Toyota Camry gets 34 mpg on the highway and it suits most people's needs more than fine.

Sure, it's yet another case of the government manipulating a market to a certain extent, but I would much rather have the mindless drones of the world buzzing around in Camrys than Explorers.

 

its economically better to buy something we have less of from someone who has lots of it. better than scrounging for every bit of oil here.

 

bush can be flushed down the toilet for all i care

 

Not to be a dick... but go suck on my hairy balls.


You have NO idea what its like over there. Don't tell anyone whose been there before, LET ALONE TWICE, that they should quit the bitching and do it AGAIN, cause its their job. You have no idea what he could have seen over there. Trust me. No one wants to go back over there. Enough of my boys have died. I'm so tired off all this war.


America is ****ed regardless of what they do. If they leave you'll be called on it for leaving before its done, but if they stay, thousands more Americans are going to die over MANY more years. Personally. I'd rather see my brothers live and leave Iraq breathing then have one more Infidel blow him up with a car bomb or some shit.


And I bet you 95% of the people who signed up on their own free will would do it if they REALLY knew what they were getting themselves into.



Stay strong Devil... you know who I'm talking to.

 

:werd: :goodjob:

 

He is idiot and I would not vote for his ass ever. I would rather have Gore and I hate him. Everyone makes a big deal about his war record but dont you know he only spent 3 month in Vietnam was when the tour of duty for everyone else was 16 months. I doesn't matter if Bush went to war or not WHY because once you are in the military your ass belongs to the government and you dont have any say so in what you do. Now what does that mean??? I means Bush did what he was order to do. You know there about 12 support personel for every one person we send to combat. I dont hear any one singing their praise now do ya.

Kerry is loser. All he does is complain. Why dont we look at his record right quick. Kerry cant seem to choose a side ever and when he does he changes his mind case in point the Patriot act and NAFTA. He voted for both and now he doesn't want either. Bush has stood his ground and is something admire.

I will honestly say if he gets elected I will definatly be ashamed to an american on that day.

Kerry = :ghey:



Austin