Well say that was the way it went.
Just to win without the sixth number you're odds of choosing the right combination is 1 in 228826080.

I'm not sure if you meant repeat number within 49 so I just multiplied 49x48x47x46x45.
And of course there's no way they sell that many tickets so you're chances are really slim, that's why people rarely win. You're not just playing against everyone else. For the jackpot it would be 1 in 10068347520.