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Buick and/or Pontiac Doomed?

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Old Mar 29, 2005 | 10:43 AM
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Default Buick and/or Pontiac Doomed?

http://money.cnn.com/2005/03/29/Auto...ex.htm?cnn=yes
Survivor: Buick vs. Pontiac
Comment from GM exec raises speculation that one -- or both -- of the venerable makes could go away.

March 29, 2005: 1:29 PM EST
By Chris Isidore, CNN/Money senior writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Pontiac and Buick could become the stars of their own reality show in the coming years: Survivor GM.

That's because the two mid-level brands of the nation's No. 1 automaker look like they're on the bubble. At an analysts' conference last week, GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz said both lines are "damaged" and that dropping one of the venerable names -- both date back more than a century -- was possible unless there's a turnaround.

Lutz said closing a brand, as it did with Oldsmobile after the 2003 model year, was something that GM hoped to avoid. But he said that, if the carmaker's brands don't hit sales targets, "then we would have to take a look at a phase-out. I hope we don't have to do that. What we've got to do is keep the brands we've got."

GM officials have tried to backtrack somewhat on Lutz's comment, saying there are no plans to drop a brand and that he was only answering a question about a hypothetical. They say they're confident the brands will get the investment needed to grow.

"There's no strength in dropping a brand," said GM spokesman Dee Allen. "Pontiac, Buick and (truck brand) GMC together are stronger than two would be. They represent different customer bases."

But auto experts look at GM's continued slide in market share along with the financial problems caused by its current cost structure, and say the possible end of another GM brand isn't as much a surprise as the fact that a top GM executive would raise the possibility.

"It's a signal to folks that it's going to happen," said Walter McManus, director of the Office for the Study of Automotive Transportation. "They're very careful not to speculate about things that aren't going to happen."
Buick lags Pontiac in sales

Buick had 1.8 percent of the U.S. market in 2004, just ahead of the 1.7 percent share that Oldsmobile had in 2000, when GM announced the end of that line. Pontiac had a 2.8 percent share.

Both brands have recently had trouble attracting customers to new models that GM was hoping would give them a lift -- the Pontiac G6 and the Buick LaCrosse. Next up for the brands are the Solstice roadster from Pontiac and the Lucerne sedan from Buick.

But even the brands' advocates admit that getting potential buyers to look at these cars is a challenge.

"The G6, when we get people to test drive it, they love it," said Conrad Darby, a Florida Buick and Pontiac dealer. "We're just not getting sufficient people in to test drive it. And I think the Lucerne is going to be a home run. It's a gorgeous automobile. It's the problem we have with the rest of them. It's a four-door sedan and there are a million four-door sedans out there."

Still the dealer groups are a powerful constituency within GM, and dropping either Buick or Pontiac -- which would take the livelihood away from some operators -- would be a bigger battle than dropping Oldsmobile, which was seeing much of its sales from GM employees and rental car companies by the time the plug was pulled.

"I don't think Buick will go away," said Frank Bellavia, a Long Island, N.Y., dealer and president of the Buick Dealer Council. "The dealers do well. What we need is just more product."

But many experts think it's a tough road ahead for both brands, and that the end of the line could be near for at least one.

In fact, McManus said there's arguments to be made for GM dropping both brands. However, other analysts said it's unlikely that GM would want to drop both and have no mid-level brands in the space between Chevrolet and Cadillac.

Right now, many see Buick as running somewhat behind, with a somewhat older customer base to go with its smaller share.

"If I had to bet the farm, I'd say Buick will be the one that goes," said Mike Chung, auto analyst with Edmunds.com.

Chung said the weakness both brands have attracting new buyers is balanced by the strength both brands have in customer loyalty. That will make it difficult for GM to drop either brand with the hopes they would be able to hang onto the Buick or Pontiac customers with their remaining lines.

"I wouldn't rush to get rid of either line because of the costs associated with the move," said Chung. "But if GM's share continues to drop and gets down near 21 percent, I see them taking steps to phase out Buick."

Other experts say the decision could be a few years away, and that could give either brand a chance to win the race with the other.

David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research, said that if either brand ends up with a hot vehicle while the other flounders, it could be a deciding factor in which one survives.
i wonder if the solstice will help pontiac out. its a real nice concept, but that doesn't guarantee sales. i see a lot more potential for pontiac than for buick, even without looking at the sales numbers. GM needs a miracle to turn buick's image around (and that miracle ISN'T tiger woods). i guess they still don't realize that their naming conventions are pretty damn stupid. while i disagree with the assertion that the Lucerne is "a gorgeous automobile," if it really is a "home run" of a car, its name is a complete failure. especially if they think that their biggest problem is getting people in the door for a test drive, isn't it safe to say that the name *alone* going to be a major problem in selling this car? maybe i'm being too snobby, but i think the name "Lucerne" is more than capable of turning off a significant portion of their potential audience.. will they ever learn...?

to me, at least, since i'm too young to have experience the glory days of buick and the-american-automobile, losing buick would be more of a good thing. at the very least, GM would lose a couple re-badges, and the sales would probably be diverted to their other brands anyway. so basically, does anyone really care? if they axed both pontiac AND buick, then i'd be surprised.
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Old Mar 29, 2005 | 11:49 AM
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GM needs some good product.

They just phased out the Zeta platform, which was a big car RWD platform. Imagine the crossover SUVs and Chrysler 300C competitors they could have built on it? And what do we get instead? The Lucerne.

I hope the Solstice is a shot in the arm for Pontiac, and that it lures young customers to the showroom floor.
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Old Mar 29, 2005 | 12:54 PM
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GM needs only 3 or 4 divisions:

Chevrolet - Entry level economy, family sedans, bread and butter. Oh yeah, Corvette. And if you go with the 3 division concept, Chevy trucks.

Pontiac - Performance. Which, due to the stupidity of GM, seems to be in a quagmire as they have halted plans for the Zeta platform. How you gonna have real performance without RWD?

Cadillac - Luxury.

..... and if you go with the 4 division concept:

GMC Trucks, which would then eliminate Chevrolet trucks.


GM still has waaaaay too much redundancy and badge engineering in their corporate ladder. Trim the fat, stream line, and then 2 things will happen: they'll make more money, and then they can afford to put some of the extra profits back into making their existing cars better quality and style.

Again, there'll be a few tears shed if Buick joins Oldsmobile in the Blue Square Grave Yard, but since the last really cool car to come from Buick is the Grand National/GSX (which was last produced 18 years ago), I doubt many people will really miss it.
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Old Mar 29, 2005 | 01:28 PM
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I put together all of GM's 2005 models into excel on some free time earlier
today. Notice a lot of overlap between same car class under different brands?
GM has way too many products and brands for its own good. I know GM can
make a good product, it just has too much overhead to turn over a profit and
put back into reinvestments and quality control.



I left out pickup trucks, specialty models, and commercial vans out.
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Old Mar 29, 2005 | 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted by kazi
I put together all of GM's 2005 models into excel on some free time earlier
today. Notice a lot of overlap between same car class under different brands?
GM has way too many products and brands for its own good. I know GM can
make a good product, it just has too much overhead to turn over a profit and
put back into reinvestments and quality control.

I left out pickup trucks, specialty models, and commercial vans out.
Now if you could think of doing this, why couldn't the multi-billionaire bean counters in Detroit do the same?
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Old Mar 29, 2005 | 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by fastball
GM still has waaaaay too much redundancy and badge engineering in their corporate ladder. Trim the fat, stream line, and then 2 things will happen: they'll make more money, and then they can afford to put some of the extra profits back into making their existing cars better quality and style.
sounds good to me.
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Old Mar 29, 2005 | 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted by fastball
Now if you could think of doing this, why couldn't the multi-billionaire bean counters in Detroit do the same?
i'm sure GM execs, decision makers and other assorted employees are fully aware of the overlap in their divisions' lineups. but whoever ends up making the final decisions for each of the divisions (or GM as a whole) thinks it's the right way to run their business.
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Old Mar 29, 2005 | 03:52 PM
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I forgot to add that GM should sell Saab or do something else with it (have you noticed lately that more and more Saabs share the Chevrolet parts bin?), and dissintigrate Saturn (most Saturns would fit in the Chevy lineup).

Honda does very well with just 2 nameplates. As well does Toyota (well, 3 now I guess). I always wondered in the first place why GM had up to 9 divisions at one point.

When I had my first car, a 1985 Buick Regal, the driver's door rusted out. I went shopping for a door at local junk yards, when to my surprise, I found the same exact door was on the Olds Cutlass Supreme, Pontiac Grand Prix, and Chevy Monte Carlo. I remember thinking the only thing differentiating these cars is front and rear end treatment and the badge on the trunk lid. Hell, if you wrecked your Regal and you needed a front end clip in a pinch, the damn clip from a Grand Prix would bolt right on. :chuckles:
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Old Mar 29, 2005 | 04:21 PM
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Originally Posted by fastball
I always wondered in the first place why GM had up to 9 divisions at one point.
not that it's an excuse, but GM didn't create all of its brands, they bought most of them. which sounds a lot like what they do today.. i believe buick was the first GM company, but oldsmobile was the oldest. pontiac, cadillac, oldsmobile and chevy were all started as independent car companies, according to general motors. maybe if they had left them as somewhat independent divisions, they might have ended up better.
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Old Mar 29, 2005 | 06:17 PM
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Originally Posted by mayonaise
not that it's an excuse, but GM didn't create all of its brands, they bought most of them. which sounds a lot like what they do today.. i believe buick was the first GM company, but oldsmobile was the oldest. pontiac, cadillac, oldsmobile and chevy were all started as independent car companies, according to general motors. maybe if they had left them as somewhat independent divisions, they might have ended up better.
Yes, that is a good point. Come to think of it, how many car companies were around at the hight of domestic auto production in the 1950's? You had Nash, Studebaker, Hudson, and a few others I'm sure I'm forgeting, as well as GM, Ford, and Chrysler.
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