Originally posted by mayonaise
china probably doesn't need taiwan economically anymore, because there are a growing number of foreign countries investing more and more money in china every day. taiwan is small shit.
china also doesn't treat taiwanese companies equally. they can shut them down at will, or refuse contracts, etc. they do this BECAUSE they are taiwanese.. alright, i know this because my uncle runs a large clothing manufacturing company in taiwan, and this shit has happened to his friends and associates. so a lot of taiwanese companies don't even go to china for manufacturing - they goto other countries like vietnam where the labor is just as cheap, but the government won't screw you.
the issue of whether the US will stand in china's way if they want to attack taiwan is uncertain.. taiwan is not recognized by the UN (another retarded story of its own). while the US supports taiwan and its democracy, it may be the only country that really stands against china. china could probably take the entire island of taiwan before the US can send a warship over there.. so far the US has sent warships over if china starts doing missile tests over taiwan, stuff like that.. if they resort to actual aggression, no one knows what will happen
from what I've read China is hit pretty hard with the rest of the world. but you are right next year i believe chinas less restrictive laws go into affect and more companies will be doing business with China directly.
however when it comes to electronic (using the term loose) goods taiwan does most of the design work. if china attacks taiwan then there is a good chance that the companie that deal with taiwan for design will also be affected. those companie also deal with china and even if they are not at the moment it will hurt the relationship.
it would be interesting if china makes a move or not. I doubt they would do a nuclear strike. but they have enough ships to cut off taiwan if they wanted to. the question is how will the US act?
I'm not completely sure but I believe US has a carrier battle group near Taiwan which they can position between taiwan and china and have done so in the past.