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Bush is ahead by a good margin in Florida and clinging in Ohio...it all depends on those two states. If he loses one of those he has to win 2 of Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
I added them up according to what MSNBC has on their site, and i came up with 156 last time. Either they have the wrong # of electoral votes for a state, or CNN is wrong.
Based on the AP results I'm going to tentatively call Florida for Bush, but New Hampshire for Kerry. That's a change from red to blue but not enough to win it for Kerry.